by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Black swan events are by definition unpredictable, catastrophic, and retrospectively believed to have been fully predictable and by extension less impactful.
About the Reference
In his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb illustrates the truly unpredictable nature of black swan events. He shows how the limits of human imagination and available information hide the possibility of these events from us regardless of the retrospective assertions made by ‘the experts.’ Dr. Taleb goes on to reveal micro-level black swans that influence the day-to-day success and failure of companies and individual employees.
Benefits of Using this Reference
The Black Swan brings to the forefront the reality of unpredictable events. Through his proof of their existence, Dr. Taleb creates a mandate for executives and managers to examine and prepare their organization to deal with black swan events at the corporate and employee level.
The one shortcoming of Dr. Taleb’s book is the absence of a set of guiding protocols or principles for effectively dealing with black swan events once they occur. This remains as an outstanding research and development project for the reader with no initial direction provided.
StrategyDriven likes The Black Swan for its exposure of unpredictable events and the inferred call to action to prepare one’s organization to deal with these catastrophes commensurate with the organization’s overall risk profile; making The Black Swan a StrategyDriven recommended read.