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StrategyDriven Decision-Making Warning Flag Article

Decision-Making Warning Flag 1a – The Gambler’s Fallacy

"The Gambler's Fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, is the false belief that the probability of an event in a random sequence is dependent on preceding events, its probability increasing with each successive occasion on which it fails to occur."

 
 
 
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StrategyDriven Decision-Making Warning Flag Article

Decision-Making Warning Flag 1 – Logic Fallacies Introduction

Complex decisions require executives and managers to synthesize a multitude of variables into meaningful information from which they must choose a course of action. Some executives and managers combine clarity of thought and depth of knowledge and experience with a true understanding of the organization's goals to identify and select a well founded decision option. Others find their perspective clouded by personal bias, self interest, misinformation, inexperience, and/or a lack of decision-making fundamentals knowledge; falling prey to logic fallacies, the misapplication of logic during problem solving.

 
 
 
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